Hindsight bias. Something which plagues every single investor on Earth. And it's no more apparent than in the case of stock prices. Go on any investing group on social media and when someone recommends a big company like Apple, Amazon or Disney, you'll see some version of the following response. "It's already gone up by X amount, it can't go up anymore." The 2 best recent examples of this are AMD and Nvidia, two companies that have had a huge run in the past 10 years. There were numerous...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
Citi thinks that oil will sink to $65 a barrel JP Morgan thinks that oil will soar to $380 a barrel. Now these are 2 of the top investment banks in the world. The cream of the crop. With some of the smartest people on the planet working for them. And they have come up with polar opposite predictions for a single commodity. So if they can't even get in the same ballpark on oil - how on Earth could they get anywhere close to being accurate on something as complex and dynamic as the financial...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
Many moons ago, I met Damon. Damon was the brother of a girl I was dating at the time... and I'd learned that he was a fairly successful day trader. I had no proof of this but he'd been doing it as his full time income for 5+ years so I assumed he knew we he was doing. And naturally I was excited to meet someone who shared similar interest to me. We met at a night market in Taiwan... if you like hot sweaty environments and incredible seafood then those will be right up your street. And within...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
I've had a few people send me articles over the past week about how stocks chosen by ChatGPT are outperforming the S&P 500. There was another one yesterday on Twitter where some guys gave ChatGPT a bunch of instructions and asked it to create a portfolio for them. It was actually a pretty decent exercise... and gave some interesting ideas ranking stocks on recent earnings reactions and social sentiment. Including recommending companies like Berkshire Hathaway, Google and First Solar. But then...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
This blew my mind. The other day on Twitter, I saw one of those blue checkmark "activists" claim that Jeff Bezos "just got lucky" According to this person, the Amazon founder "got in at the right time" when there was "no competition". And while there's no point arguing or even debating people like this (they're beyond rational discussion)... there is an important lesson here. Luck and risk are 2 sides of the same coin. Because when Bezos raised his first round of funding, around $1 million...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
There are a lot of platitudes in investing. Things that you can say that are universally regarded as "correct" 2 of these are 1) Saying that everything is overvalued And 2) Saying that value investing is the only way to win But here's the problem. We've distorted what "value investing" is to a point where value has become synonymous with cheap. Which means every single company with a low stock price or low PE ratio gets denoted as "value" and everything else gets shoved in the overvalued...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
"Trust your gut" How often do you hear that? So when the market falls 25 percent (or for some of these growth stocks, 60% or more), your intuition kicks in and you tell yourself that this isn't right... something feels broken... this is wrong... and you want out. Now, one of the perks of being a member of Capital Gains Multiplier is being able to discuss your current investments with me 1-on-1. And it's something that a lot of our members have been doing... because of the pullback in the past...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
To pay for the large costs of the ongoing First World War, Germany suspended the gold standard when the war broke out. Unlike France, which imposed its first income tax to pay for the war (as an aside - this is how the majority of taxes first became apparent)... German Emperor Wilhelm II decided to fund the war entirely by borrowing. They believed that by winning the war... they would be able to pay off their debt. That didn't happen. The country was left with around $26.5 Billion worth of...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read
There is one thing I've found to be more valuable than anything else when it comes to getting better investing results. It's one of the simplest and most natural things on earth... but almost no one in our modern world does it. So what is it? Don't touch your phone until you've been awake for at least an hour. Don't check your email. Don't do anything that creates a quick dopamine release. And especially... don't check your stock or crypto portfolio. You see, dopamine is the chemical in our...
over 3 years ago • 1 min read