Hindsight bias.
Something which plagues every single investor on Earth.
And it's no more apparent than in the case of stock prices.
Go on any investing group on social media and when someone recommends a big company like Apple, Amazon or Disney, you'll see some version of the following response.
"It's already gone up by X amount, it can't go up anymore."
The 2 best recent examples of this are AMD and Nvidia, two companies that have had a huge run in the past 10 years.
There were numerous times you could have bought in and doubled your money... but for so many... it was a case of feeling like you missed the boat the first time round... so you stayed on the sidelines this entire time.
Here's one of the most important investing lessons you'll ever learn.
It doesn't matter about buying something before anyone else.
If a stock has gone from $14 to $28, and you think it could go to $50.
Then who cares if you bought in at $14? Get in at $28 and enjoy your gains.
Winners often keep winning.
And you'll lose far more money by sitting on the sidelines and playing the "if only I'd invested then..." game, than you will by buying in too high.
When it comes to quality companies - better to buy too high, than to not buy at all.
Case in point.
I remember looking at The Trade Desk, a few years ago when it was trading around $13/share (split adjusted)
It had run up from $4.50 in less than 2 years... so I felt like I'd missed the boat.
Today the stock is trading at $66. An sixteen-bagger in just 5 years.
So next time you're looking at a stock, don't look at previous prices, only where you think it's going.
For more rational investing advice check out our book The 8 Step Beginner's Guide to Value Investing, now available on Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/8-Step-Beginners-Guide-Value-Investing-ebook/dp/B08B1NZXYT
Oliver
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